Many of our best decisions, timeliest course corrections, or significant innovations occur after a seemingly disastrous occurrence. That's why many psychologists and self-help gurus encourage people to focus on the hidden gift that many of these experiences provide.
It's there if you look for it. That painful event becomes the catalyst for either something new, a better way, or a level-up.
The goal isn't just to survive - it's to thrive. While a robust business can withstand shocks and a resilient business can recover from them, an anti-fragile business improves and grows stronger when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors.
Of course, that's not the case for everyone or every event ... It takes the right mindset and the right actions to turn a trial into a triumph.
As we see the world changing rapidly, both through AI and through Trump's presidency, I think back to 2008 and how a prior incarnation of algorithms fared against it (spoiler alert: not nearly as well as this time). They say the things that don't kill you make you stronger. Here's my trial into triumph story about that.
Too many people become victims of their circumstances instead of choosing to be the master of their destinies.
Life is harder for people who live a life of least resistance. Doing the hard things and making the most of bad times makes life better and, ultimately, easier.
Tony Robbins calls this the Threshold of Control. If you push through the fear and the struggle ... as you persevere, eventually, what was scary becomes easy. You've increased your threshold, and that's often a permanent improvement.
Here is a list of the seven steps I use to transform almost any situation.
Seven Best Practices for Uncertain Times.
Accept Reality: We are where we are. Focus on being complete with what happened before this – and think about this as a new beginning with an even bigger future.
Do Something Positive: Take action and build momentum and confidence. Big wins are great. Yet, in scary times, even small items are worth noting, building upon, and stacking. Let progress build positive momentum for you.
Take Care of Yourself: Increase your physical activity, meditation, and massage. Take time to eat and sleep well. Many studies show decision-making suffers when you're stressed. Caring for yourself goes a long way to improving many other things.
Communicate More: The natural tendency is to hide or to recuperate in private. Instead, be open and receptive to help and ideas from friends, partners, or wherever it may come.
Creative Destruction: The old game and the old ways of thinking are over. Shift your energy to what is working. Commit to the result you want rather than the process.
Increase Your Options: It often takes a different level of thinking to solve a problem than the level of thinking that got you there in the first place. So, be open to opportunities, new possibilities, and more ways to win.
Choose a Bigger Future: Instead of resigning yourself to playing small and doing with less, recognize that a clearing creates space for something even better. Choose what you want and call it into existence through your thoughts and actions.
They say everything happens for a reason. The secret is that you get to choose the reason, what it means to you, and what you're going to do about it. Choose well, and someday, you could look back on this time as one of the best things that ever happened to you.
The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) has recently been nearing historic highs. Traders think that signals that market valuations might be overheated.
In December of last year, it hit 37.9, over double its long-term average of 17.6. For context, it has only exceeded that level during the Dot-Com bubble and in 2021.
Overheated prices mean that there's a significant gap between company earnings and stock prices. That disparity translates to speculation and hope driving the stock price instead of more quantitative data.
For some historical perspective, after the Dot-Com bubble, the S&P declined by 40% in the following two years. And after its 2021 peak, the S&P sank almost 20%.
While AI enthusiasm has brought a spark to the markets, the question is, is that hype hiding deeper issues?
On a broader note, my message to you would be that if you don't know what your edge is, you don't have one. Investors and traders should understand market indicators, economic trends, and other world factors – mainly because it's important to be educated (or at least informed). Of course, merely understanding these things does not translate to a reliable trading strategy or an edge in today's environment.
Lastly, just because something has been true in the past does not mean it predicts the future. In trading, we use the phrase "past performance is not indicative of future results" to remind us that there is a difference between a coincidence and a correlation. Indicators like CAPE study the past, so it is dangerous to assume you can use them to predict the future. For better or worse, whether markets go up or down is based on much more than earnings and stock prices.
While I mainly discuss entrepreneurship and technology trends, I still have a soft spot for trading, which remains a large part of what we do at Capitalogix. While we've broadened the industries in which we use our Capitalogix Insight Engine, it was originally built with trading technologies in mind. We have exciting new partnerships there, including a new fund.
As we look forward, I thought it was a good time to look back as well.
"...the change in the pit isn't a harbinger of death for futures trading; it's the signal of a new era."
At the time, it didn't feel like a bold statement to me – because what was coming felt inevitable. And it has proven to be true. Markets have changed radically since 2016. And you can bet that the changes aren't done, as AI and exponential technologies promise to transform markets and trading again.
The process of trading and clearing is moving beyond human capabilities. As the old duties of the Exchange fade away, the focus must be on the dangers, opportunities, and strengths of a bigger future. That means new games to play, new risks to navigate, and a new set of rewards to capture.
Nearly empty CME trading pits in 2016 (specifically, the S&P and Eurodollar)
The new game involves not only new players, methods, and markets ... but also a new geography.
Yes, as more things become digital, geography still matters.
Texas is rapidly becoming an even larger economic hub. It boasts the highest number of NYSE listings, Nasdaq recently established a large base here, and companies representing more than $3.7 trillion in market value list Texas as their headquarters.
No, I'm not talking about how fast the DOGE team is terraforming government.
I'm talking about how fast the insights of exponential technologies are compounding the real-world implications of where we are and where we are going.
In past issues, we've talked about how quickly the world is changing, how fast innovations happen, and why it's not about today's tools but rather the value and capabilities of the foundational assets we build upon ... and, ultimately, the things that makes possible.
Today's commentary is different from our usual posts. Yes, the inspiration came from my weekly curation of links selected based on what captured my attention or imagination. However, today's post is about the sheer volume and density of groundbreaking innovations competing for mindshare and investment dollars. And while commercial success is a great way to keep score, we'll explore what this accelerating pace of innovation means for our future and the world.
So, here is a list of some of the things that made headlines this week.
Nvidia and Arc Institute launched a new AI Bio model - Evo 2 - trained on over 100k species. This doesn't just analyze genomes ... it creates them.
Sakana.AI introduced the AI CUDA Engineer, an agentic AI system that automates the production of CUDA kernels 10-100x faster than with common machine learning,
Some may not matter to you now. Try re-reading the list while letting yourself be amazed at what is happening!
Any one of these is a momentous achievement that would have sounded like science fiction even 10 years ago. Now, that's one week of achievement.
As someone whose company invents things for a living, I understand that none of these breakthroughs were actually invented last week. Obviously, a long and winding road leads to each of those announcements. However, it's remarkable to see so many significant innovations reaching the stage of public announcement simultaneously.
It's hard to quantify the impact of these innovations on not only the tech industry - but the world.
Think about the implications. Google's co-scientist is already solving problems that humans haven't been able to solve for decades. Clone is building robots that will use the next generations of AI to transform how we think about what artificial intelligence looks like.
Not to mention the improvement in quantum computing and nuclear fusion, industries that I've been paying attention to since the 90s.
While any of these topics would have made a good article, in my opinion, the whole is more impressive than the sum of its parts.
If I had to pick one of those topics to highlight, I think it's now time to start focusing more on quantum computing.
Most of you probably aren't interested in watching the whole thing, but here are some of the highlights.
They've created a new state of matter called a topological superconductor.
The qubits created with topological superconductors are fast, reliable, and small ... very small.
These new qubits are 1/100th of a millimeter, meaning we now have a clear path to a million-qubit processor.
To put that in perspective, imagine a chip that can fit in the palm of your hand yet can solve problems that even all the computers on Earth today combined can't!
Satya doesn't believe in making claims about how quickly AGI is coming.
However, he believes it is useful and productive to set a benchmark of making the world 10% better.
He also believes the topological superconductor breakthrough makes quantum computing a practical reality that can happen in a few years - not decades +.
From 2023-2024, over $26 billion flowed into the sector - including big deals like Inflection, xAI, and Anthropic.
While many of the biggest investments were in foundational models and infrastructure, some money is now moving into targeted AI applications.
AI isn’t just for researchers and the tech giants anymore ... it’s becoming more commercial.
Realistically, AI is overhyped – and there is a lot of competition. Yet, few firms have operationalized AI in a meaningful way.
With that said, here is a question worth considering.
Where are the AI applications capable of generating returns that justify the infrastructure, investment, and focus?
The next battle will likely be in the AI Applications space. To keep it short, why hasn’t it happened yet ... and what will likely create the value we’re looking for?
Why Haven’t AI Apps Taken Off Yet?
• Cost vs. Value Gap: Many AI applications are still experimental or add only incremental value.
• Enterprise Hesitation: Many companies are still figuring out how to integrate AI into their operations in a way that delivers real ROI.
Where Might the Value Come From?
For AI investments to pay off, applications must solve big problems, not just serve as experimental tools. The highest-value areas likely include:
• AI copilots and automation (Enterprise AI reducing labor costs and bottlenecks)
• Autonomous systems (AI for analytics, compliance, and logistics)
• AI-driven discovery (Accelerating breakthroughs in capabilities and performance)
• Next-gen digital assistants (LLMs with memory, context, and long-term utility)
Right now, AI apps are where mobile apps were in 2008 — there is plenty of potential, but only a handful of genuinely indispensable use cases.
Companies like Capitalogix that crack the code on industrial-grade AI applications, will drive the next wave of value creation.
It’s fun and rewarding to watch artificial intelligence become available to everyone.
As the cost of “intelligence” decreases, let’s hope more people take advantage of the opportunity.
However, the sad truth is the opposite is also more likely. As AI becomes more available, it becomes easier for it to become a distraction.
Remember the Internet? When it first started, most of the uses were academic. Now, despite there being functionally infinite ways to use the internet to improve your life and make you smarter, most people use it for memes and distractions.
When you think about AI, don’t just think about artificial intelligence ... Think about amplified intelligence. That is the term I use to distinguish between the technology and what people really want ... which is the ability to make better decisions, take smarter actions, and continuously improve performance.
AI isn’t about taking away the humanity from your business or automating away the things you love. It’s about allowing you to be more human – doing more of the things you’re best at - that give you energy and bring you joy.
It means exactly what it sounds like – but probably also a lot more than that.
On a personal level, energy affects how you feel, what you focus on (and what you make that mean), and, consequently, what you choose to do. That means it is a great way to measure your values, too.
On a business level, energy impacts more than you might recognize. It has a lot to do with who you hire and fire, where you spend your time, the target markets or segments you pursue, and even your company’s long-term vision.
Ultimately, if something brings profit and energy, it is probably worth pursuing.
In contrast, fighting your energy is one of the quickest ways to burn out. Figuring out who and what to say “no” to is crucial to estaying on track and reachingyour goals. This is where mindset and mindset scales apply.
Mindset Matters.
Watch this short video on Mindset Scales. It’s packed with insights and tools you can use as targets and filters.
The video highlights the critical role that specific values and mindsets play in business success. It goes over a few easy exercises (including how to create a Mindset Scale) to help identify and assess the path to desired outcomes.
One of the techniques I’ve developed is called the “Three Word Strategy”. It’s based on the idea that people, capabilities, products, and even companies can be described in a three-word strategy (think of it as a “recipe for success”). By understanding this process, you not only can help choose the right people, but it might also help to create the right technology to achieve that (think of this as a digital WHO to do the HOW) in a way that helps and supports the humans involved in the process.
Three-Word Strategies.
I believe that words have power. Specifically, the words you use to describe your identity and your priorities change your reality.
First, some background. Your Roles and Goals are nouns. That means “a person, place, or thing.” Let’s examine some sample roles (like father, entrepreneur, visionary, etc.) and goals (like amplified intelligence, autonomous platform, and sustainable edge). As expected, they are all nouns.
Next, we’ll examine your default strategies. You use these to create or be the things you want. The strategies you use are verbs. That means they define an action you take. Action words include: connect, communicate, contribute, collaborate, protect, serve, evaluate, curate, share … and love. On the other end of the spectrum, you could complain, retreat, blame, or block.
People have habitual strategies. I often say happy people find ways to be happy – while frustrated people find ways to be frustrated. This is true for many things.
Seen a different way, people expect and trust that you will act according to how they perceive you.
Meanwhile, you are the most important perceiver. Think about that for a moment!
Another distinction worth making is that the nouns and verbs we use range from timely to timeless. Timely words relate to what you are doing now. Timeless words are chunked higher and relate to what you have done, what you are doing, and what you will do.
The trick is to chunk high enough to focus on words that link your timeless Roles, Goals, and Strategies. When done right, you know that these are a part of what makes you … “You”.
My favorite way to do this is through three-word strategies.
These work for your business, priorities, identity, and more.
I’ll introduce the idea to you by sharing my own to start.
Understand. Challenge. Transform.
The actual words are less important than what they mean to me.
What’s also important is that not only do these words mean something to me, but I’ve put them in a specific order, and I’ve made these words “commands” in my life. They’re specific, measurable, and actionable. They remind me what to do. They give me direction. And, together, they are a strategy (or process) that creates a reliable result.
First, I understand, because I want to make sure I consider the big picture and the possible paths from where I am to the bigger future possibility that I want. Then, I challenge situations, people, norms, and more. I don’t challenge to tear down. I challenge to find strengths … to figure out what to trust and rely upon. Finally, I transform things to make them better. Insanity is doing what you always do and expecting a different result. This is about finding where small shifts create massive consequences. It is about committing to the result rather than how we have done things till now.
If I challenged before I knew the situation, or I tried to transform something without properly doing my research, I’d risk causing more damage than good.
Likewise, imagine the life of someone who protects, serves, and loves. Compare that to the life of someone who loves, serves, and protects. The order matters!
One more, just to get you thinking about it ... Connect, Engage, Contribute!
There is an art and a science to it. But it starts by taking the first step.
Try to find your three words.
Once you do, remember to use them. Over time, I’ve set daily alarms on my phone to remind me of them. I use them when I’m in meetings (to help orient, reflect, or inspire), and I often use them to evaluate whether I’m showing up as my best self.
You can also create three words that are different for the different hats you wear, the products in your business, or how your team collaborates.
Finding Your Three Words
Everyone feels a range of emotions. It helps if you can express them. This emotional word wheel might help. It isn’t exhaustive ... but it should give you some ideas.
Like recipes, these three-word strategies have ingredients, orders, and intensities. As you use your words more, the intensities might change. For example, when my son was just getting out of college, one of his words was contented because he was focused on all the things he missed from college - instead of being appreciative of the things he had. Later, his words switched to grateful and then loving. These evolutions coincided with his personal journey ... and represented his ability and desire to take stronger actions.
Realize that we create what we want by doing. As such, choose words that inform or spark the right actions. You can see that in my son’s words. As he grew, he became more comfortable actively prompting the actions he wanted to approach life with instead of just passively hoping for a feeling.
You can apply these simple three-word strategies almost everywhere once you learn how to create them.
Unsurprisingly, almost half of consumer spending goes toward housing and transportation.
While this has slightly outpaced inflation, it hasn’t by much.
Meanwhile, spending in some areas surged well beyond wage and overall inflation levels. For example, Americans spend 21% more on food than in 2021. A closer look shows that the cause isn’t just inflation. Food and beverage companies increased their operating profits by 79% from 2019-2023.
Educational spending and healthcare spending are also rising.
How do you think the Trump administration’s actions will impact the economy and the wallets of typical Americans?
Many of my close friends and advisors are optimistic about the Trump administration’s actions and expected impacts. However, as I’ve often noted regarding technological change, people are good at noticing big turning points – but struggle with predictions about the second and third-order consequences of these shifts.
Triumph Through Trials: Becoming Anti-Fragile
Many of our best decisions, timeliest course corrections, or significant innovations occur after a seemingly disastrous occurrence. That's why many psychologists and self-help gurus encourage people to focus on the hidden gift that many of these experiences provide.
It's there if you look for it. That painful event becomes the catalyst for either something new, a better way, or a level-up.
The goal isn't just to survive - it's to thrive. While a robust business can withstand shocks and a resilient business can recover from them, an anti-fragile business improves and grows stronger when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors.
Of course, that's not the case for everyone or every event ... It takes the right mindset and the right actions to turn a trial into a triumph.
As we see the world changing rapidly, both through AI and through Trump's presidency, I think back to 2008 and how a prior incarnation of algorithms fared against it (spoiler alert: not nearly as well as this time). They say the things that don't kill you make you stronger. Here's my trial into triumph story about that.
Via Howard Getson's YouTube Channel.
Too many people become victims of their circumstances instead of choosing to be the master of their destinies.
Life is harder for people who live a life of least resistance. Doing the hard things and making the most of bad times makes life better and, ultimately, easier.
Tony Robbins calls this the Threshold of Control. If you push through the fear and the struggle ... as you persevere, eventually, what was scary becomes easy. You've increased your threshold, and that's often a permanent improvement.
Here is a list of the seven steps I use to transform almost any situation.
Seven Best Practices for Uncertain Times.
They say everything happens for a reason. The secret is that you get to choose the reason, what it means to you, and what you're going to do about it. Choose well, and someday, you could look back on this time as one of the best things that ever happened to you.
Posted at 09:31 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Ideas, Market Commentary, Personal Development, Religion, Science, Trading, Trading Tools, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0)
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